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          馮達旋:關于首篇由中美學者合作BRI論文發表于頂尖期刊《Applied Energy》的獨家解讀

          時間: 2020/4/15 10:49:00 來源:宣傳部

          近日,海南大學一帶一路研究院院長梁海明教授在頂尖期刊《Applied Energy》上發表與美國工程院院士、美國普林斯頓大學環境研究所所長Prof. Michael Celia 及其博士生陶以恒先生的合作論文“Electric power development associated with the Belt and Road Initiative and its carbon emissions implications”。這是首篇由有美國工程院院士參與綠色一帶一路的相關研究并公開發表論文,海南大學一帶一路研究院名譽院長、德州大學達拉斯分校前副校長馮達旋對此進行了分析和意義解讀。以下為馮達旋顧問的文章全文:


          In Volume 267, June 1 issue of the top-ranked “Journal of Applied Energy (JAE),” from the behemoth Elsevier, a paper entitled “Electric power development associated with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its carbon emissions implications” will be published. Currently it is available for on-line purchase:


          Top期刊《Applied Energy61日推出的第267期中,將收錄一篇名為《與一帶一路倡議(BRI)相關的電力發展及其對碳排放的影響》的論文。目前本文可以在線購買:

          https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261920302968?dgcid=coauthor



          The BRI is a massive and long-term global effort. Yet, it is truly remarkable that even though it was proposed in the Fall of 2013, I am confident that in 7 years, this may be the first, if not the first BRI collaborative results of US and Chinese scientists published in a top global scientific journal whose discussions that are entirely based on gathering and assessing accurate, massive and unbiased data.


          一帶一路“ 倡議是一項巨大且需要全球協作的長期項目。然而,值得注意的是,從2013年秋季提出一帶一路倡議到現在的七年時間里,本篇文章很有可能是中美兩國科學家合作發表在全球頂級科學雜志上的首篇關于一帶一路的文章。文章的討論完全基于收集和評估準確、龐大且客觀的數據。


          Since this area of research is terra incognita for me, I had to carry out a little research to ascertain the position of JAE in the world of energy research. According to https://www.resurchify.com/all_ranking_details_2.php?id=518, the 2018 Impact Factor of JAE is 8.426. This is comparable to the top physics journal I am familiar with, Physical Review Letters, whose IF is 9.227.  More information is given below.


          由于我對能源領域知之甚少,所以我做了一下調查來確認JAE雜志在能源領域的地位。Resurchify網站https://www.resurchify.com/all_ranking_details_2.php?id=518顯示,2018JAE期刊影響力因子(Impact Factor,簡稱IF)為8.426。這可與我熟悉的頂級物理期刊《物理評論快報》(Physical Review Letters)相媲美,IF指數為9.277。詳細信息可見下圖。(注:期刊影響因子 Impact Factor, IF 是代表期刊影響大小的一項定量指標。也就是某刊平均論文被引用數,它實際上是某刊在某年被全部源刊物引證該刊前兩年發表論文的此書,與該刊前兩年所發表的全部源論文數之比。來源:百度百科 



          The authors of this important paper are Yiheng Tao and Michael Celia of Princeton University’s Department Civil and Environmental Engineering and Haiming Liang of Hainan University Belt and Road Research Institute. Professor Celia is a member of the United States National Academy of Engineering, and is also the Director of Princeton’s Institute of Environmental Sciences, whose expertise is in understanding the global challenge of climate change. Professor Liang’s is one of the new generations of outstanding economists from China. Yiheng Tao is a doctoral student of Professor Celia.


          本文的作者是海南大學一帶一路研究院院長梁海明、普林斯頓大學城市與環境工程系教師Michael Celia和其學生陶以恒。Celia教授是美國國家工程院(the United States National Academy of Engineering)的成員,同時他也是普林斯頓大學環境科學研究所(Princeton’s Institute of Environmental Sciences)主任。Celia教授主要研究氣候變化引起的全球挑戰。梁海明教授是中國當代有名的經濟學家。陶以恒是Celia教授的博士生。



          Michael Celia教授和梁海明院長


          As expected, the paper is long (more than 40 journal pages) and information-rich. The ABSTRACT of the paper given below also manifests how one can and should conduct this area of research.


          正如預期的那樣,該論文篇幅較長(40多頁)且信息豐富。 以下的論文摘要也將呈現這一研究的可行性及規范性。


          Abstract


          The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), initially proposed by China in Fall 2013, involves large-scale development of infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, in Asia, Europe, and Africa, and thus has the potential to affect global climate. In this work, we analyze publicly available information for 458 power plant development projects in 15 representative countries across the BRI regions from eight years prior to BRI (January 2005), to 6 years after BRI (June 2019) in which Chinese engineering contracting companies played a significant role. The data indicate that coal, gas, and solar photovoltaics (PV) activities increased to different degrees after BRI was introduced. We find that 75% of the new generation capacity after October 2013 has gone to fossil fuels, while the rest has gone to hydroelectricity (14%), solar PV (6%), wind (3%), and others (2%). Those numbers have important carbon emissions implications. Based on current trends, the total BRI-associated power development in the 15 countries could generate 37 (range 26–48) gigatonnes (Gt) of committed carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by the end of 2030, corresponding to 4–11% of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5-degree climate goal. Extrapolation of these results to all BRI countries gives an estimate of 56 (range 40–72) Gt CO2 for cumulative BRI-related committed emissions by 2030, corresponding to 7% to 17% of the remaining 1.5-degree carbon budget. If the projected growth of fossil fuel power generation in BRI slows down prior to 2030, there are commensurate reductions in emissions implications. To provide context for these numbers, we define a “greenness ratio,” which can be used to measure the level of environmental sustainability of BRI in the power sector.


          一帶一路倡議,簡稱BRI2013年秋由中國提出。一帶一路重點在大規模基礎設施建設,其中包括亞洲、歐洲和非洲的能源設施等,因此該項目可能影響全球氣候。鑒于此,我們分析了一帶一路倡議前八年(20051月)及后6年(20196月)十五年期間,中國工程承包公司援建的15個有代表性的一帶一路沿線國家的458個發電廠開發項目的公開信息和數據。數據表明,自一帶一路倡議提出以來,煤炭、天然氣和太陽能光伏發電量均有不同程度的增長。我們發現,自201310月起,75%的新發電能來源是化石燃料,其余的分別是水力發電(14%)、太陽能光伏發電(6%)、風能發電(3%)和其它能源(2%)。這些數字對碳排放有著重要的影響。根據目前的趨勢,到2030年年底,15個與一帶一路相關的電力開發項目有關的國家將產生37億噸(范圍為26-48億噸)的二氧化碳排放,相當于1.5℃氣候目標剩余碳預算的4%-11%。由此推算,估計到2030年,所有與一帶一路相關的國家累計承諾排放量為56億噸二氧化碳(范圍在4072之間),相當于剩余1.5℃碳預算的7%17%。如果一帶一路國家化石燃料發電的預期增長能在2030年之前放緩,其排放影響也將相應減少。為充分證實這些數字的真實性,我們構建了一個綠色比率模型,它可以用來衡量一帶一路電力產業的環境可持續性水平。


          The importance of this paper can be summarized as follows:

          (1) This is a cross-pollination of environmental engineering science and geo-economics;

          (2) This is the first collaboration of United States and China’s scientific on the issue of BRI

          本文重點如下所示:

          1)環境工程科學和地緣經濟學的跨學科合作;

          2一帶一路倡議提出以來,中美科學家首篇合作發表論文。


          For (1), it is known throughout the global research community that intellectual cross-pollination is the best way to create innovative and deeper ideas. In this case, both disciplines of environmental engineering science and geo-economics require detailed and accurate data to reach consensus.

          關于(1),在全球研究界中眾所周知,跨學科是實現創新和產生更深層次想法最好的方法。在這種情況下,環境工程科學和地緣經濟學這兩個學科都需要詳細而準確的數據才能達成共識。


          For (2), this is especially noteworthy that when nowadays there is significant political intrusions into any BRI discussion. These groups of scientists could rise above the fray, and concentrate on what the massive and accurate data is telling them. Their results cannot be and is not either perturbed or imbalanced by other peripheral issues. Unquestionably, for BRI to benefit mankind, more of such research results should be and are acutely needed. The results published in this paper clearly indicate to us that even in the energy arena, the work may still be only the tip-of-the-iceberg.  There are multitudes of research directions which one could pursue to render BRI a true benefit for humanity.

          關于(2)特別值得注意的是,現如今,任何一帶一路倡議的討論中都有重大的政治干預。這些科學家群體可能會脫穎而出,專注于大量準確數據所呈現的內容。 他們的結果不能也不會受到其他外圍問題的干擾或影響。 毫無疑問,為了使一帶一路造福于全人類,這樣的研究成果應當有而且迫切需要。本文研究結果清楚地表明,即使在能源領域,這項工作也可能只是冰山一角。有許多研究方向可以使一帶一路真正為人類帶來好處。


          With this paper appearing in the top and open global journal, I hope that this could set an intellectual standard in which one should aspire to in any future research on BRI.


          隨著這篇論文發表在全球最重要的公開期刊上,我希望這可以為之后一帶一路研究設立一個理想的標準。


          I am fortunate to personally know both Professor Celia and Professor Liang. Professor Celia and I were for several years members of the Academic Advisory Board of one of the fastest growing Malaysian universities: Universiti Tecknologi Petronas (UTP) and Professor Liang and I have collaborated for several years already on various projects regarding issues and challenges confronting the BRI. Their intellectual capacities and honesty are palpable. This collaboration was conducted during a six-month-visit by Professor Liang at Princeton University’s Institute of Environmental Sciences.

          我很幸運認識Celia教授和梁教授。Celia教授和我都是馬來西亞國油大學(Universiti Tecknologi PetronasUTP,馬來西亞發展最快的大學之一)學術顧問委員會多年的成員了。我和梁海明教授就一帶一路所面臨的問題和機遇等不同項目進行了多年的合作。他們的睿智和誠實是很明顯的。這項合作是梁海明教授在普林斯頓大學環境科學研究所進行為期六個月訪問時促成的。



          //www.sduln.com.cn

          該文發表于 2020/4/15 10:49:00 已被 編輯 2020/4/15 10:56:00
          內容編輯:ymy
           
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